THREE FACTS ABOUT MARIJUANA PRICES

Australians are among the largest consumers of marijuana in the world, and estimates show that their expenditure on marijuana is about twice that on wine. In this paper we analyse the evolution of marijuana prices in Australia and show that they have declined in real terms by almost 40 percent over the last decade. This decline is far above that experienced by most agricultural products. Why has this occurred and what are the implications? The extensive adoption of hydroponic techniques in growing marijuana is likely to have enhanced productivity, with the benefits passed onto consumers in the form of lower prices. We find patterns in the prices that divide the country into three broad regions: (i) Sydney, where prices are highest; (ii) Melbourne and Canberra, which have somewhat lower prices; and (iii) everywhere else, where marijuana is cheapest. We also find that marijuana prices seem to be (positively) related to real estate prices. A further finding is that the price declines have stimulated marijuana consumption by about 15 percent, inhibited drinking (marijuana and alcohol being substitutes) and led to an increase in the real incomes of users in excess of $1 billion p. a.Demand and Price Analysis,

A New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates

Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several serious problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the CPI, that are used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. Such real-time forecasts can be made on a day-to-day basis if required, so that the forecasts are based on the most up-to-date information set. These high-frequency forecasts could be particularly appealing to decision makers who want up-to-date forecasts of exchange rates. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework which provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. A comparison of our forecasts with the random walk model shows that although the random walk is superior for very short horizons, our approach tends to dominate over the medium to longer term.Exchange-rate forecasting, Bic Mac prices, purchasing power parity, Monte Carlo simulation

Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities

There is a large literature on the influence of commodity prices on the currencies of countries with a large commodity-based export sector such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada (“commodity currencies”). There is also the idea that because of pricing power, the value of currencies of certain commodity-producing countries affects commodity prices, such as metals, energy, and agricultural-based products (“currency commodities”). This paper merges these two strands of the literature to analyse the simultaneous workings of commodity and currency markets. We implement the approach by using the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the determinants of the prices of these currencies and commodities. Included in the specification is an allowance for spillovers between the two asset types. The methodology is able to determine the extent that currencies are indeed driven by commodities, or that commodities are driven by currencies, over the period 1975 to 2005.

AFFLUENCE AND FOOD A Simple Way to Infer Incomes

Accurate and timely measures of cross-country real incomes are still a rarity. As the share of expenditure devoted to food is readily available, we use of Engel’s law in reciprocal form to measure affluence. Analysis of real income data for the OECD countries indicates that this approach is viable. To recognise the role of uncertainty in the analysis, we present the results in the form of stochastic cross-country income comparisons.

THE INVESTMENT PROJECT PIPELINE COST ESCALATION, LEAD-TIME, SUCCESS, FAILURE AND SPEED1

As they involve expectations about the future and long lead times for planning and construction, the evolution of investment projects is usually complex and volatile. This paper analyses an important aspect of this volatility by studying the nature of the investment process, from the initial bright idea to the final construction and operational phase of a project. We refer to this process as the “project pipeline”. Using a rich source of information on recent Australian resource development projects, an index-number approach is employed to measure the escalation of costs of projects in the pipeline and the time spent there (the lead time). The determinants of the probability of ultimate success of projects is analysed with a binary choice model. Finally, a Markov chain approach is used to model the transitions of projects from one stage in the pipeline to the next, and to examine the implications of regulatory reform that has the effect of speeding up the flow of projects.

The International Volatility of Growth

Growth in the world economy is not shared equally among all countries, with some growing faster, some slower and some not at all. The cross-country distribution of growth is a useful tool for analysing the inequality of growth. The appropriately-weighted first moment of this distribution is world growth, while the second measures cross-country volatility. This paper introduces a methodology to examine the cross-country distribution of growth, and the components of its volatility. Using data from the Penn World Table, we find countries within geographic regions are seeing a harmonisation of growth, but between regions there is increasing dispersion.Growth, Cross-Country Distribution, Volatility